Hello and welcome to my first blog on IPL 2023. And, this is going to be an interesting one as in this blog I am not going to post my predictions about Who will win the IPL 2023? Final Four Teams? Best Bowler, Batter etc.
In this blog, I am going to reveal my betting strategy which I am following from last 4 seasons for each major tournaments including last month WPL 2023.
Why I had mentioned the WPL 2023, because that was the first edition of Women IPL, and I wanted to test if my strategy will work in a tournament where we don’t have in-depth knowledge about the players.
Today is 31 March 2023, In the evening we have opening game for 2023 season with the match between defending champions Gujrat Titans and all time favorite CSK. Will post the prediction about the game in sometime and will post the link for the same.
No more time wasting! Lets jump onto my betting strategies for the IPL 2023.
IPL 2023 Best Betting TIPS
Before we jump onto the IPL Betting Tips, I would like to mention that their are couple of rules which you have to follow in order to implement the strategies or these betting tips. P.S. You may use these strategies for any sport.
Rule 1: Decide your ‘Budget’
First thumb rule is to decide your ‘Budget’ for the tournament (in this case IPL). Budget means, the maximum loss that you can bear in the tournament.
For example: Lets you have budget of 1,00,000 for IPL 2023. In this addition, 74 matches going to play which means you have 1350 per match to lose.
Rule 2: Consistency
Form a strategy and follow the same for the whole tournament. Consistency also includes, bet amount and the ODDs.
For example: If you have decided to back the favorite team in each match, at the odds of 1.65 and above with 1000 amount. Follow this strictly in each and every match. If you won’t find right ODDs in any match, do not play.
Betting Strategy 1 – ‘TIE’
Yes you read it right, I called this strategy “TIE”. Lets look at the ODDs we get for TIE at the bigning of every match.
- IPL 2009 – 1 Match went to the super over. That was the eleminator between KKR v RR and the Tie score was 150.
- IPL 2010 – 1 Match between CSK Vs Kings XI, again eliminator. Score 136
- IPL 2013 – 2 Matches, SRH Vs RCB and RCB Vs DD. Scores were 130 and 152 respectively.
- IPL 2014 – 1 Match, KKR Vs RR. Score 152
- IPL 2015 – 1 Match, RR Vs KXI Punjab. Score 191
- IPL 2017 – 1 Match, GL v MI. Score 153
- IPL 2019 – 2 Matches, DC v KKR and MI v SRH. Scores, 185 and 157 respectively.
- IPL 2020 – 4 Matches, DC v KXIP, RCB v MI, SRH v KKR, MI v KXIP. Scores were, 157,201,163 and 176 respectively.
- IPL 2021 – 1 Match, SRH v DC and the score were 159.
Total 14 IPL Matches went to the superover till date. Here is IPL Super Over Match Records, in case you want to check.
Now we have ODDs and the data. Lets discuss the strategy.
Lets say we have the Budget of 1,00,000 in total for the tournament. Which means we have 1350 for each match to lose.
In this strategy, you need to bet with amount 350 at the odds of 100 in each match on TIE. Here are all the scenerios:
- Worst Case: If not a single match get tied in the whole season, you will lose 25,900/- (350 x 74 matches)
- Break Even: If only 1 match get tied, you will win 9,450/- {(350 x 100 odds) – (350 x 73 matches)}
- Best Case: – If 2 matches get tied then your profit will be 44,800/- {(2 x 350 x 100 odds) – (350 x 72 matches)}
In short, you need just 1 Tie out of 74 matches. So the propability is 1/74, which means if you roll a dice to get 6 and you have 74 chances. Isn’t that make sense to take chance?
If you think this strategy won’t work for you. Leave it, but I would advised to invest 30% of your budget to this, since the return is so high.
Betting Strategy 2 – ‘Lay the Big Dogs’
In this strategy, we need to lay a favorite team “Big Dogs” at certain ODDs. My recommendation is to lay 1.20 or under.
Like before we have the budget of 1350/- per match. Our of that, 350 we are investing TIE, rest you can invest in this. So, if you lay 5k @ 1.20, your loss would be 1,000 for the match.
Here are the scenerios:
- Worst Case: Not a single match won by Non-Favorite team. If this will happen you will lose 74k, but this scenrios is highly impossible.
- Break Even: You need just 12 Matches to be break even.
- Best Case: If 20% matches been won by Non-Fav team your net winning would be close to 22k.
My personal research whcih I had done on 300+ matches. Percentage of Non-Fav team is around 18-20%.
Betting Strategy 3 – Back the Bookie
This is the safest stragey out of 3 we have discussed so far. In this strategy, you need to back the team which is favorite untill the 1st ball of the match been bowled.
Again, my personal analytical skills show 78-82% favorite team wins. Thats why I call the “Bookie Team” and this strategy is called Back the Bookie.
In this strategy, you have to fix the odds on which you are going to back the team. My recommendation anything above 1.70 is good odds to back the bookie team.
But in some matches, you may find the ODDs are 1.45 or 1.50. In that case, my re-commendation is to wait for the right odds. If not, do not place bet.
Here are the scenrios that I have figured out.
- Worst Case: All matches won by Non-Fav team which is highly impossible. In this case, you will loose 74k
- 50-50 Ratio: In case you will win 50% of the matches, and have your bets @ 1.70 your loss would be around 11k.
- Ideal Case: In case, 60 out of 74 matches been in your favour then your profit would be some around 28k
